Probably statistical principle of systems engineering as an instrument of reliability of managerial decision making

Abstract

The article examines the main issues of reliability management solutions of a construction project, which is a system of interrelated elements (activities) with characteristics (duration and cost) are random variables, due to the uncertainty of the initial information. Complete elimination of uncertainty, i.e. the creation of definite conditions of realization of a construction project is as desirable for every entrepreneur, so impossible. At the same time, the uncertainty should not be treated as an exclusively negative phenomenon. In conditions when taken by the management decision not yet fully taken place, the uncertainty can promise additional features that were not visible at the beginning of the investment project. Thus, the implementation of construction project in conditions of uncertainty and risk and these two categories are interrelated, and one of the most important indicators of organizational and technological design is reliability. The use of economic-mathematical methods and the involvement of computers will expand research and industry optimization of organizational-technological models of construction industry. The present level of development of building production requires a fundamental change of methods of management of organizational and technological processes and introduction of complex automation of processes of development and making optimal organizational and technological solutions. Organizational-technological design is a complex construction process, the purpose of which is providing a focus for organizational, technical and technological solutions for achieving the final result - the introduction of objects with the required quality, in time and with maximum profit of the contractor. One of the most important indicators of organizational and technological design is reliability, which determines the possibility of the elimination of construction deviations during construction from the action of destabilizing factors. Topical area of research in this area is the development of improved apparatus of the simulation, which in its algorithm uses the distribution law for two-dimensional random variable that allows to choose optimal criteria for end product and further monitoring of their implementation