Optimization of the investment portfolio during the reconstruction of housing facilities

Abstract

The article substantiates the criteria for the expediency of investing in the reconstruction of housing facilities. The analysis of the market value of residential buildings for a number of regional centers of Ukraine is carried out, the priority pricing characteristics that determine the stochastic relationship with changes in the housing cost index are determined. A methodological approach to assessing the possibility of obtaining an economic effect from the implementation of housing reconstruction projects has been proposed.

A special indicator for justifying investment decisions for the restoration of obsolete housing stock has been substantiated, It is an index of the ratio of housing costs in the secondary and primary markets, and should be lower than one for objects, the reconstruction of which will provide a certain positive economic effect. An analysis of the market value of residential buildings for a number of regional centers of Ukraine was performed, priority pricing characteristics were identified, which determine the stochastic relationship with changes in the housing cost index. The practical significance of the obtained linear regression dependence and the possibility of its use without territorial localization were proven. A methodology for optimizing the investment portfolio in the reconstruction of the housing stock has been developed, the essence of which is to construct and solve an optimization problem. Its constraints are based on the results of a statistical analysis of local secondary real estate markets. The primary indicators of the risks of not achieving the planned economic effect from the implementation of capital investment projects in the reconstruction of the housing stock of economically developed regional centers have been clarified. Promising directions for using optimization solutions for designing artificial intelligence systems aimed at ensuring the maximum social and economic effect of housing reconstruction have been identified. It has been proved that neglect of the proposed optimization solutions will lead to waste, depreciation of investments due to the lagging behind the increase in the market value of the renovated housing stock from the amount of additional costs for major repairs and reconstruction. The prospects for further research of the problem of optimizing the portfolio of investments in the reconstruction of the housing stock in the form of interval assessments of price-forming characteristics of land improvements and the methodological tools necessary for this are outlined – the theory of fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic, algorithms of fuzzy logical conclusion.