Features of formation of analytical structure of risk assessment of real estate projects in the conditions of external changes

Abstract

Modern economic development is characterized by a high level of dynamism, increasing uncertainty of the external environment, accelerating transformation of market conditions and increasing the level of risks of implementing investment projects. These trends are especially acute in the field of development and implementation of investment and construction projects, which are characterized by high capital intensity, significant duration of implementation, complex financing structure and a large number of stakeholders.

In modern conditions, development projects operate in an environment where macroeconomic, market, regulatory, resource and technological factors are simultaneously affected. High volatility of the cost of construction resources, changes in financing conditions, fluctuations in demand in the real estate market and the rapid development of digital technologies significantly complicate the process of managing development projects.

Traditional approaches to managing development projects, which are based on static planning models and rigidly fixed forecast indicators, do not provide the necessary level of management adaptability. As a result, there is a need to develop integrated adaptive models of optimizing management decisions that can ensure effective management of development projects in conditions of rapid changes in the external environment.

The developed structure for implementing an optimized management decision reflects the logic of the transition from the results of analytical optimization to practical management of a development project in conditions of rapid changes in the external environment. Unlike traditional approaches to managing investment and construction projects, in which making a management decision is considered as the final stage of the analytical process, in the proposed author's approach, the management decision is only the initial phase of a continuous management cycle, which includes implementation, monitoring and adaptive adjustment of project parameters.

Within the author's concept of managing development projects in conditions of rapid change, the management decision is considered as a dynamic management structure, which is formed on the basis of the integration of scenario analysis, risk assessment and multi-criteria optimization, but is not a static result of analytical activity.